Job Growth
Falters Badly, Clouding Hope for Recovery
Published: July 8, 2011 - New York Times
For the second consecutive month, employers added scarcely any jobs in June,
startling evidence that the economic recovery is stumbling.
All levels of government shed workers, and hiring by companies continued to
slow, resulting in a meager 18,000 new nonfarm payroll jobs last month, the Labor Department reported
on Friday. The government also revised downward the small gain for the previous
month to 25,000 new jobs, less than half the original estimate.
Although the governmentfs survey of employers showed a slight expansion in
jobs, a separate survey of households found that more people were searching for
work than in the previous month, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 9.2
percent from 9.1 percent in May.
Economists were stunned. They had been expecting job growth to strengthen in
June as oil prices eased and supply disruptions caused by the Japanese tsunami
and earthquake receded. Instead, the governmentfs monthly snapshot of the labor
market showed that several industries, including construction, finance and
temporary services, shrank. At the same time, leading indicators like wages and
the length of the average workweek, which tend to grow before employers begin
adding more jobs, actually contracted.
gEven the wild-eyed optimists out there have nothing to grasp onto in this
report except to say, eAh, this too shall pass,f h said Joshua Shapiro,
chief United States economist at MFR Inc.
Most analysts are not yet forecasting an outright slide back into recession,
but at a time when President Obama and Congress are focused on spending cuts,
Europe is in financial crisis and even Chinafs growth is slowing, there is
little expectation of anything other than a prolonged slog for the United States
economy.
gStimulus is fading, and we still have plenty of problems left over from the
popping of the bubble,h Mr. Shapiro said. gSo itfs going to be a touch-and-go,
or a very subpar, situation for a very long time. The question is a matter of
degree in terms of how soft or subpar itfs going to be, as opposed to whether
itfs going to remain that way.h
Stock market investors largely shrugged off the bleak labor report, as the
Standard & Poorfs 500-stock index fell less than 1 percent to close at
1,343.80 on Friday. They have taken comfort in relatively strong corporate
profits, aided in no small part by global sales. The discordance between
business strength and feeble hiring has raised concerns that companies will
continue to rely on productivity gains and investments in equipment, as opposed
to more workers, to fuel growth.
With Republicans and Democrats very much at odds over the budget, Mr. Obama
said the jobless numbers should give both sides more incentive to strike a deal.
Government and private economists have been lowering their forecasts for
national output this year, with the Federal Reserve now estimating little
improvement over last yearfs 2.9 percent growth rate.
In remarks in the Rose Garden at the White House on Friday, Mr. Obama went
beyond counseling patience on the economyfs long return to health and urged
Congress to extend the payroll tax cut passed last December. He also said that
legislators should sign pending trade agreements and pass bills that would
establish an infrastructure bank and reform the patent process, all measures
that he said would help create jobs.
gThere are bills and trade agreements before Congress right now that could
get all these ideas moving,h Mr. Obama said. gAll of them have bipartisan
support. All of them could pass immediately, and I urge Congress not to wait.h
Republicans blamed the president and Congressional Democrats for the weak job
market, with John Boehner, the House speaker, saying that ending the ban on
drilling for oil and lifting regulations would spur hiring.
Though all the job growth last month came from private companies, which
expanded by 57,000 jobs, they have made a striking retrenchment from the average
of more than 200,000 jobs a month added from February through April. The largest
gains came from companies in health care and leisure and hospitality, while
manufacturers, which lost jobs in May, added a mere 6,000 slots in June.
The economy needs to add about 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with
normal population growth. The protracted stretch of weak-to-moderate job
creation over the last two years has left many of the people who lost jobs
during the recession increasingly desperate. There are now 14.1 million
unemployed, with 6.3 million of them having searched for work for six months or
longer. Including those who are working part time because they cannot find
full-time work and those who have stopped looking, the broader unemployment rate
is now 16.2 percent, its highest level since December 2010.
Economists said that companies had been battered by a string of bad news
throughout the spring and were reluctant to hire. gSentiment for businesses is
on a knifefs edge,h said Omair Sharif, United States economist for the Royal
Bank of Scotland. gSo that when you get a few negative data points, itfs all
doom and gloom.h
Budget strains were evident in the public sector as the federal government
slashed 14,000 jobs, and state and local governments cut an additional 25,000.
Nearly three-quarters of the job losses at the local level came in education.
The Labor Department report gave little hope for a quick turnaround.
Temporary help services, which tend to expand before employers hire permanently,
fell by 12,000 jobs.
Janette Marx, senior vice president for Ajilon Professional Staffing, a unit
of Adecco, said that while companies in accounting and finance were making fewer
requests for temporary workers, they were slowly recruiting permanent hires. But
employers are still very jittery.
Companies are gkeeping themselves on the edge,h said Jeff Joerres, chief
executive of ManpowerGroup, a temporary staffing firm. gAs soon as there is any
sense of confusion — whether it be political, abroad, economic — they can stop.
They literally pick up the red phone and say, eno more this week.f h
For hopeful signs, some economists pointed to more recent data showing a
pickup in retail sales at chain stores and a rise in an index of business
hiring. In manufacturing, analysts expect an increase in auto production in the
fall, partly because disruptions in supply will have diminished and partly
because of built-up consumer demand.
Daniel J. Meckstroth, chief economist of the Manufacturers Alliance, a trade
group, said consumers who had been delaying purchases of cars, washing machines,
refrigerators and other big equipment that breaks down over time would
eventually start buying again as they paid down debts.
gSpending was severely cut during the recession,h Mr. Meckstroth said. gNow,
the longer you wait, the more pressure there is to make purchases. You canft
postpone some things indefinitely.h
Steve Blitz, a senior economist for ITG Investment Research, countered that
consumers were satisfying their need for autos by buying used cars. gJust
because Toyota didnft sell the car in May or June doesnft mean that theyfre
going to sell it in September,h he said.
Christine Hauser contributed
reporting.